China Housing Voucher Program 2025: Major Cities Ramp Up Subsidies Amid Vanke Default Fears
China's major cities are expanding housing voucher programs in 2025 to tackle rising inventories. Explore the impacts on China Vanke's default risks and the 4.5% growth forecast.
China's property crisis just hit a new fever pitch. Major cities are now handing out subsidized housing vouchers as the ghost of a China Vanke default looms over the world's second-largest economy.
China Housing Voucher Program 2025: A Desperate Push to Clear Inventory
According to Reuters, municipal governments are scrambling to spur demand as new-home inventories pile up. On December 29, 2025, it was reported that cities like Shanghai are expanding subsidy-linked vouchers to incentivize buyers. This move comes as China Vanke, a state-backed developer, narrowly dodged a default after bondholders extended a grace period. But the reprieve feels temporary.
The ballooning debt in the property sector is significantly heightening deflation risks. Investors should brace for continued volatility as banks sell off real estate collateral to shed bad debt.
The 4.5% Growth Ceiling and Structural Debt
A recent Nikkei survey suggests that China's economic growth will likely slow to 4.5% in 2026. The concern is that subsidy-fueled demand is fizzling out, leaving consumers hunting for bargains rather than making long-term investments. Without a massive and vigorous stimulus, the pace of growth remains hostage to the property sector's decline.
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