虛假的十萬美元？通膨調整後，比特幣高點從未觸及此關卡
比特幣在2025年10月名義價格衝破$126,000，但Galaxy Digital分析指出，經通膨調整後的真實價格從未達到$100,000。這對多頭與空頭意味著什麼？本文深入解析。
比特幣價格在2025年10月雖一度飆升至{以上，引發市場狂熱，但加密商業銀行「{」全球研究主管{（Alex Thorn）指出，一旦將通膨因素計入，其「真實價格」從未突破{的心理關卡。
{在其X（前身為推特）的貼文中解釋，若使用2020年的美元價值來調整比特幣價格，今年的高點實際上僅為{。此番言論點出了「名目價格」（nominal price）與計入通膨後、反映真實購買力的「實際價格」（real price）之間的巨大差異。
根據數據，從2020年到2025年，美國的通膨率上升了約{。之所以選擇2020年初作為基準，是因為那是美國聯準會（Fed）為應對新冠疫情而開始大規模印鈔之前的時間點。
這項數據為市場多頭和空頭雙方都提供了論述的彈藥。
多頭可能認為，這代表自2022年低點以來的漲勢，並不如想像中那般瘋狂，意味著在{的名目高點時，市場泡沫程度遠低於預期，牛市仍有很大的延續空間。
另一方面，空頭則可能主張，比特幣在通膨調整後表現疲軟，證明其作為「抗美元濫印」的避險資產名不符實。他們或會建議堅守黃金，儘管黃金本身近幾十年來在跑贏通膨方面也面臨著自身挑戰。
此番分析迫使投資者直面一個關鍵問題：比特幣究竟是由名目價格驅動的投機泡沫，還是以真實購買力衡量的長期價值基石？答案將定義其未來資產類別的最終走向。
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