ASEAN Promises South China Sea Deal This Year

After 24 years of negotiations, ASEAN is making its boldest promise yet: the South China Sea code of conduct will be completed in 2026. But can a regional bloc that operates on consensus deliver what decades of diplomacy couldn't?

The Philippines Takes the Lead

As the new ASEAN chair, the Philippines wasted no time putting the South China Sea at the top of its agenda. Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro declared at the Cebu retreat that negotiations would be "concluded and completed" this year.

The timing isn't coincidental. Manila has faced increasingly aggressive encounters with Chinese coast guard vessels in recent months, making the disputed waters a domestic political issue. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s administration has taken a markedly tougher stance toward Beijing than his predecessor, aligning more closely with Washington.

This code of conduct has been in the works since 2002, when China and ASEAN signed a non-binding Declaration of Conduct. The proposed upgrade to a legally binding agreement has been stalled by Beijing's reluctance to accept meaningful constraints on its activities in waters it claims as sovereign territory.

Myanmar's Pariah Status Continues

ASEAN also reaffirmed its position on Myanmar, with Malaysia's foreign minister stating the bloc would neither certify the military junta's recent elections nor send observers. This continues the organization's unprecedented exclusion of a member state since the 2021 coup.

The junta's elections, conducted amid ongoing civil war and widespread boycotts, have been dismissed by most of the international community. Even China and Russia, Myanmar's key backers, have offered only lukewarm support for the electoral process.

China's Calculated Resistance

Beijing's approach to the code of conduct reflects a broader strategic calculation. While China wants to maintain good relations with ASEAN countries—its largest trading partner—it's unwilling to compromise on what it sees as core territorial claims.

The challenge for negotiators is finding language that appears to constrain Chinese activities without actually limiting Beijing's freedom of action. Previous drafts have included provisions for joint development and conflict resolution mechanisms, but enforcement remains the elephant in the room.

China's recent actions suggest it's more interested in managing tensions than resolving them. The country has continued building military facilities on artificial islands while simultaneously engaging in diplomatic talks—a strategy that has effectively changed facts on the ground while negotiations drag on.

The Enforcement Question

Even if a code of conduct is signed, its effectiveness will depend entirely on implementation mechanisms. ASEAN's consensus-based decision-making means any member can effectively veto enforcement actions, giving China significant leverage through its relationships with countries like Cambodia and Laos.

The United States and its allies will be watching closely. A weak agreement that legitimizes Chinese control could actually worsen the strategic situation, while a strong code that Beijing simply ignores would expose ASEAN's limitations.