China's Gambit: Why Myanmar's Junta Is Finally Holding Its Long-Promised Election

Nearly five years after seizing power in a coup inFebruary 2021, Senior GeneralMin Aung Hlaing is following through on his pledge to hold an election. After a brutal civil war that has killed tens of thousands, nobody expects the vote to be free or fair. The country's most popular political party, theNLD, is banned from competing. So why now? The answer lies in a combination of overwhelming pressure fromChina and a dramatic reversal of fortune on the battlefield.

A Return from the Brink

Just over a year ago, the military regime seemed to be in terminal decline. InOctober 2023, a powerful coalition of ethnic armed groups known as theThree Brotherhood Alliance launched a stunning offensive, capturing major towns and military bases. Images of seized tanks and hundreds of surrendering regime soldiers flooded social media, fueling a belief that the dictatorship was on the verge of collapse.

Fearing that a victorious pro-democracy movement would be too close to the West,China intervened to an unprecedented degree. According to reports,Beijing pressured the Alliance groups on its border to sign a ceasefire, closing border crossings they rely on for supplies and forcing them to return key territories to junta control. ByDecember 2024, Chinese officials were overseeing a ceremony where the major northern city of Lashio was handed back to the regime without a fight. This intervention saved the junta from collapse.

An Election by Design, Not by Choice

Owing its survival toChina, the junta is now under intense pressure to satisfy its benefactor’s demand for an election. With the military back in a dominant position,Min Aung Hlaing also feels politically secure enough to stage a carefully managed vote. It’s less a political transition and more “a procedural exercise to consolidate military rule behind a thin civilian veneer,” says Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar advisor for the International Crisis Group.

The election's structure is engineered to guarantee military control. Voting will be cancelled in nearlyhalf of townships. Paradoxically, this strengthens the military's hand. Under the 2008 constitution, the military directly appoints25% of parliamentary seats. As analyst Min Zaw Oo notes, with fewer elected seats in play, this appointed bloc will constitute a significantly larger percentage of the total, giving the junta an even tighter grip on power.

The timing also serves to undermine the oppositionNUG. The NUG's mandate stems from the2020 election, which is now set to expire. Having already lost relevance due toChina's hostility and its inability to command the loyalty of all anti-junta forces, the NUG is being further politically and militarily isolated.