Beijing's Playbook: What 5 Years of PLA Activity Near Taiwan Reveals

Is the Taiwan Strait the world's next flashpoint? As Beijing’s “Chinese dream” of eventual reunification with Taiwan looms, the United States—Taipei’s most crucial international backer—appears less likely to intervene in a conflict. In this fraught environment, the actions of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have become the most critical barometer of China’s intentions.

A Constant State of Pressure

Over the past five years, PLA activity near Taiwan has escalated in both frequency and sophistication. Many observers observe this not as simple military drills, but as a calculated political campaign. These incursions by jets and warships are seen as a multi-pronged strategy: to test Taiwan’s defense readiness, exhaust its military resources, and desensitize the international community to a constant Chinese military presence.

Testing America's 'Strategic Ambiguity'

The PLA’s posturing is also a direct test of Washington’s resolve. The U.S. has long maintained a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' to deter an invasion, but shifts in the American political landscape have cast doubt on its willingness to commit forces. Beijing appears to be exploiting this uncertainty, attempting to incrementally shift the military status quo in its favor without triggering a direct confrontation.