Trump's Double-Edged Sword in Minnesota's 2026 Governor Race: A Gift or a Curse for the GOP?

It's the prize that has eluded Republicans for years, but 2026 could be their chance to finally capture Minnesota. The catch? Their greatest asset, President Donald Trump, might also be their biggest liability. The GOP is growing optimistic about unseating Democratic Gov. Tim Walz as he seeks a historic third term. Yet, some party strategists argue that Trump's caustic attacks and the potential candidacy of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell could torpedo their chances in the blue-leaning state.

Governor Walz's Vulnerabilities: A Window for the GOP

Republican optimism stems from several of Walz's perceived weaknesses. No governor in Minnesota's history has won three consecutive terms, making his bid an uphill battle. Compounding this challenge are massive fraud investigations into public programs that occurred under his watch. In 2022, federal prosecutors charged dozens of people for pocketing $250 million from a child nutrition program, a scandal the Justice Department called the "largest Covid-19 fraud scheme in the United States." A state audit later found the Walz administration failed to exercise its authority effectively.

Further investigations have uncovered fraud in housing and health benefits, with prosecutors now looking into billions of dollars in flagged billings across 14 public programs supported by Medicaid. Former Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Daudt, a Republican, said it makes it an easier case to argue that "'you've been elected now for eight years, and you haven't fixed these problems... maybe it's time for someone new.'"

The Trump and Lindell Dilemma

The problem for the GOP is Trump's approach. While highlighting the scandals, he has used the involvement of some Somali immigrants to broadly characterize the state's entire Somali community as criminals. "When the president comes in with a flamethrower... there's no oxygen, and there's no space for the Republican to offer suggestions," said Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota GOP.

That risk could be exacerbated if Mike Lindell, a staunch Trump ally, wins the nomination. "We’d be cooked," warned one GOP strategist. However, Trump's allies disagree. House GOP Whip Tom Emmer told POLITICO he's confident they could "beat Tim Walz with a dog," and defended Trump's rhetoric as necessary to draw attention to the issues.