Amazon's $1 Trillion Dilemma: Fight or Befriend the AI Agents Coming for Its Customers?

AI agents are starting to do your shopping for you, and it's putting Amazon in a tight spot. As tech giants like OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft roll out automated e-commerce tools that find the best deals and complete purchases within a chatbot, the world's largest online retailer faces a critical choice: treat these agents as a threat to be blocked, or as partners in a new era of commerce.

The Rise of the $1 Trillion 'Agentic Commerce' Threat

This trend, dubbed "agentic commerce," directly challenges Amazon's core business. Instead of visiting Amazon.com, consumers can now delegate their shopping to an AI agent, which handles everything from product research to checkout. For each transaction, the AI provider, like OpenAI, collects a small fee. According to consulting firm McKinsey, this new market could generate $1 trillion in U.S. retail revenue by 2030. "Retailers risk relinquishing transactions on their site to pay a toll on someone else's highway," Sucharita Kodali, a retail analyst at Forrester, told CNBC.

Amazon's Defensive Play: Block and Build

So far, Amazon has been playing defense. The company updated its website's code to block external AI agents from crawling its valuable product data. As of this week, its website shows 47 bots are blocked, including those from all major AI companies. The e-commerce giant has also taken legal action, suing AI startup Perplexity in November 2024 for allegedly scraping its site without approval.

Simultaneously, Amazon is investing heavily in its own AI tools. It released a shopping chatbot called Rufus last February and has since enhanced its capabilities. Rufus can now suggest products from across the web and even auto-buy items for Prime shoppers when they hit a certain price. The company is also reportedly testing an agent called 'Buy For Me', designed to purchase products from other retail sites directly within the Amazon app.

Competitors Embrace a 'Frenemy' Strategy

In contrast, rivals like Walmart and Shopify have adopted a "frenemy" strategy. They are announcing partnerships with AI companies while simultaneously developing their own tools and setting clear boundaries for how external agents can access their platforms. Amid this shift, Amazon's stance may be softening. CEO Andy Jassy has stated he expects to partner with third-party agents, and a recent job posting seeks a leader to forge strategic partnerships in "agentic commerce."