The Venezuela Military Dilemma: Survival After Maduro Capture and Trump Deal 2026
Analysis of the Venezuela military's strategic dilemma in 2026 following the U.S. capture of Nicolas Maduro and the rise of the Trump-backed transition.
A 27-year alliance has shattered overnight. The National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB), once the invincible shield of the state, watched helplessly as their president was abducted from the heart of the country's largest military complex. It's a moment that signals the end of an era and the start of a precarious new chapter for Venezuela.
Venezuela Military Vulnerability After Maduro Capture
According to reports from AP and local sources, U.S. Special Forces carried out a daring operation on Saturday, January 3, 2026, to capture Nicolas Maduro and his wife within Fuerte Tiuna. The operation exposed massive gaps in the FANB’s defense protocols. By January 7, the military was seen burying fallen comrades, a somber acknowledgment of their technological and strategic asymmetry against the U.S. military might.
For decades, the military enjoyed vast power, holding ministerial roles and controlling state enterprises. However, the legitimacy crisis following the July 2024 elections pushed the nation toward a police state. Now, the military faces a stark choice: serve as the guarantor for the transition led by Delcy Rodriguez and Donald Trump, or risk further erosion of their status and potential new attacks.
The Price of a Post-Maduro Transition
To maintain their political status, the FANB leadership must now comply with terms that were previously unthinkable. This includes dissociating from drug trafficking allegations—the official U.S. justification for the campaign—and accepting a new oil agreement that could grant American companies significant control over Venezuelan crude reserves.
Analysts suggest that Trump opted for Rodriguez over opposition leader Maria Corina Machado because of her better standing within military ranks. If the military underwrites these deals, they could transition into a stabilizing agent, a format the U.S. has utilized in countries like Egypt or Pakistan. The alternative is chaos and the complete destruction of the military's remaining credibility.
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