歐洲央行五年首度降息！鷹派立場鬆動，市場前景如何？
歐洲央行(ECB)宣佈降息25個基點至3.75%，為近五年來首次。本文深入分析降息背後的原因、總裁拉加德的鷹派警告，以及對全球投資者的潛在影響。
{歐洲央行於2025年12月22日宣布，將其主要存款利率下調{25個基點，從創紀錄的{4%降至{3.75%。此舉為近五年來的首次降息，標誌著其貨幣政策的重大轉向。儘管通膨已顯著降溫，但央行對未來的寬鬆步伐仍保持謹慎，強調決策將依賴數據而行。
降息決策：通膨降溫與經濟考量
本次降息的主要理據是歐元區通膨壓力持續緩解，逐步接近央行設定的{2%目標。歐洲央行在聲明中表示，對通膨前景的信心有所增強，過去的緊縮政策已成功抑制需求。與此同時，歐元區經濟增長乏力，降息亦有助於降低借貸成本，為經濟注入活力。消息公布後，歐洲股市普遍上揚，歐元兌美元匯率則小幅走軟。
拉加德的弦外之音：抗通膨尚未成功
然而，央行總裁{拉加德在記者會上態度審慎，她明確表示「我們並未預先承諾任何特定的利率路徑」。她強調，儘管抗通膨取得進展，但勝利尚未到來，特別是國內物價壓力依然強勁，薪資增長仍是潛在的風險因素。這番言論旨在管理市場對快速連續降息的過度預期。
此次降息更像是一次「保險式」操作，而非寬鬆週期的全面開啟。歐洲央行在抗通膨與穩增長間尋求微妙平衡，未來政策路徑充滿不確定性。投資者需警惕市場對後續降息的過度預期，並密切關注核心通膨與薪資數據的變化。
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