Ukraine Is Losing the War

A Ukrainian soldier crouches in a trench on the Donetsk frontline, rifle aimed toward enemy positions. Behind him, artillery-scarred buildings stand like broken teeth against a gray February sky. Four years after Russia's invasion began, exhaustion etches deep lines across his face.

This scene captures more than individual fatigue—it reflects Ukraine's broader strategic reality. The Trump administration's peace proposal would recognize Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territory while allowing Moscow to keep occupied portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. President Zelensky rejects these terms, but battlefield mathematics increasingly work against him.

The Numbers Don't Lie

War's outcome isn't determined by valor alone—it's decided by statistics. Russian outlet Mediazona estimates 219,000 Russian military deaths, while Ukrainian NGO UA Losses reports 87,045 Ukrainian soldiers killed and 85,906 missing in action.

Russia's absolute losses appear higher, but population ratios tell a different story. Ukraine's 36 million people represent just 26% of Russia's 140 million. Among men aged 25-54, Ukraine has lost 1-2% of its cohort compared to Russia's 0.5-0.7%.

The recruitment crisis deepens this disadvantage. Russia fights primarily with contract soldiers—volunteers with higher morale. Ukraine relies heavily on conscription, resorting to "busification"—grabbing men off streets and transporting them to recruitment centers in minivans—to meet monthly targets of 30,000 new soldiers. This desperate measure yields mostly older, unwilling recruits who often desert at first opportunity.

Overwhelming Material Disadvantage

Weapons disparities paint an even starker picture. As of 2025, Russian tanks outnumber Ukrainian ones nearly five-to-one, including stored equipment. Russia possesses three times as many infantry fighting vehicles, five times more mobile artillery, and nearly ten times as many multiple-launch rocket systems. Combat aircraft: Russia 163, Ukraine 66.

Economic foundations matter most. Russia's 2024 GDP (purchasing power parity) reached nearly $7 trillion versus Ukraine's $657 billion—less than 10% of Russia's output. Spending 7% of GDP, Russia can allocate $484 billion to defense. Even if Ukraine dedicates 30% of its economy to war, it musters only $197 billion.

Western aid helps but creates dependency. Russia maintains indigenous defense production and massive stockpiles, supplemented by Chinese and North Korean support. Ukraine's reliance on foreign partners makes it vulnerable to political shifts in donor countries.

Asymmetric War Aims

Objectives matter as much as capabilities. Russia's goals appear limited: control parts of four eastern Ukrainian regions and prevent Ukraine's NATO membership. Moscow currently holds 99% of Luhansk, 76% of Kherson, 74% of Zaporizhzhia, and 72% of Donetsk.

Russia's positive response to Trump's 28-point peace plan—delivering complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk while accepting partial gains elsewhere—suggests Moscow would accept these territorial acquisitions. After four grinding years, Putin appears willing to settle for achievable goals.

Ukraine demands restoration of its 1991 borders, including Crimea, plus sovereign right to join any alliance. But Ukraine's failed 2023 counteroffensive demonstrated the impossibility of dislodging entrenched Russian forces. Kyiv lacks both military resources for successful offense and, increasingly, political will for prolonged defense.

Global Implications

The war's trajectory affects far more than Ukraine's borders. NATO allies face difficult choices between supporting Ukrainian maximalist goals and accepting territorial realities. European nations, already bearing increased defense burdens as American commitment wavers, must decide whether continued military aid serves strategic interests or prolongs inevitable compromise.

For China, Ukraine's potential territorial concessions could establish precedent for resolving Taiwan through force. Beijing watches carefully as Western resolve potentially weakens, calculating implications for its own territorial ambitions.

Developing nations see Ukraine's struggle through different lenses. Many view the conflict as European problem exacerbated by NATO expansion, preferring negotiated settlement over indefinite warfare. Their lukewarm support for Western sanctions reflects this perspective.

The Realpolitik Calculation

Military strategists increasingly acknowledge what politicians hesitate to say: Ukraine cannot win a war of attrition against a larger, better-resourced neighbor. Russia's 140 million people and $7 trillion economy provide strategic depth Ukraine lacks. Moscow can sustain current casualty rates for years; Kyiv cannot.

Yet territorial concessions carry enormous risks. Rewarding aggression might encourage future expansionism, not just from Russia but from other revisionist powers. The precedent could destabilize the entire post-1945 international order based on territorial integrity.

Ukrainian society remains divided. While polls show majority support for fighting until victory, war fatigue grows as casualties mount and economic hardship deepens. Younger Ukrainians, bearing the heaviest military burden, increasingly question whether distant territories justify continued sacrifice.