澤倫斯基拋出頓巴斯非軍事區計畫，烏克蘭戰爭能否迎來轉機？
烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基提出包含頓巴斯非軍事區（DMZ）的20點和平計畫，試圖在俄羅斯與美國的壓力下尋求停火。此舉被視為重大讓步，但北約成員資格與領土問題仍是談判關鍵。
是讓步還是陷阱？在俄羅斯軍事推進和美國總統川普施壓的雙重夾擊下，烏克蘭總統澤倫斯基表示，基輔願意將其部隊目前控制的頓巴斯地區轉為非軍事區（DMZ），前提是俄羅斯也承諾讓其士兵撤出該地區。這被視為開戰以來烏克蘭最大的領土讓步提議。
澤倫斯基於12月24日公布的20點和平計畫中，還包括將目前由俄羅斯控制的歐洲最大核電廠——扎波羅熱核電廠周邊設立第二個非軍事區。
和平計畫中的三大僵局
這份由華盛頓和基輔談判代表在佛羅里達州共同制定的計畫，觸及了幾個核心難題。首先是烏克蘭的北約（NATO）成員國資格。儘管俄羅斯和川普政府都明確要求烏克蘭放棄加入，但澤倫斯基堅稱：「是否接納烏克蘭是北約成員國的選擇，我們的選擇已經做出。」他表示，烏克蘭已放棄了原先可能禁止其加入北約的憲法修正案。
其次是領土讓步，澤倫斯基強調任何涉及軍隊撤離的提議都必須經過全國公投。分析人士認為，烏克蘭可能需要尋求一條中間路線——不正式承認俄佔區，但承認自己並未實際控制。最後關於選舉，澤倫斯基表示，只有在和平協議簽署後才會舉行總統選舉。
非軍事區：理想與現實的差距
擬議中的頓巴斯非軍事區，涉及目前由烏軍控制的領土。然而，俄軍已控制了盧甘斯克幾乎全部地區和頓內茨克70%的地區。倫敦國王學院分析師瑪麗娜·米倫向半島電視台表示：「我看不出這要如何運作，特別是在俄羅斯於戰場上佔據優勢的情況下，我不認為他們會從頓巴斯撤軍。」她認為，基輔此舉是為了展現和平意願，將「外交皮球踢給俄羅斯」。
對此，克里姆林宮發言人佩斯科夫於12月25日回應稱，莫斯科正在「形成對該計畫的立場」，未對具體內容發表評論。
歷史上的非軍事區成效不一
縱觀歷史，非軍事區的成效毀譽參半。成立於1953年的朝鮮半島非軍事區成功阻止了大規模軍事衝突。然而，在其他地區，如戈蘭高地和西奈半島，作用則相對有限。而在泰國和柬埔寨邊境，即使設立了臨時非軍事區，今年仍爆發了造成近百人死亡的衝突，顯示其有效性並非絕對保證。
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