Trump's Venezuela Oil Production Push: CEO Skepticism Amid Infrastructure Woes

Trump wants them in, but oil giants are staying out—for now. The administration of US President Donald Trump is planning to meet with top energy executives later this week to discuss boosting Venezuelan crude output following the high-stakes abduction of Nicolas Maduro by US forces on January 3, 2026. According to Reuters, the White House believes the industry is ready to flood the nation with investment, yet the companies themselves tell a different story.

Trump's Venezuela Oil Production 2026: Risks vs. Rewards

Despite Trump's claims over the weekend that he'd already met with "all" major oil firms, executives from Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron haven't had any conversations with the White House regarding post-Maduro operations. One executive cited antitrust concerns as a primary reason for their reluctance to engage in collective discussions about investment timing and production levels.

The physical reality on the ground is equally challenging. Venezuela's oil infrastructure has been decimated by decades of underinvestment. Analysts suggest that material changes in production will require billions of dollars and years of labor. This comes at a time when US crude prices are down 20% year-over-year, hovering below $70 per barrel. "Political risks and low oil prices could prevent this from happening anytime soon," wrote Neal Dingmann of William Blair.

Market Reaction and Long-term Policy Uncertainty

Wall Street, however, seems optimistic about the potential for a long-term windfall. Energy stocks surged on Monday, with Exxon Mobil rising 2.2% and Chevron jumping 5.1%. While the White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers insists that oil companies are "ready and willing" to rebuild Venezuela, the industry is waiting for a clear legal framework and a stable political future before committing capital to a country that nationalized their assets nearly two decades ago.