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PoliticsAI Analysis

The Trump Putin Venezuela Deal 2025: A Global Bargain Over Ukraine

2 min readSource

Explore the geopolitical link between Trump's threats to Venezuela and the endgame in Ukraine. Is a grand bargain between Trump and Putin imminent in 2025?

They've shaken hands, but the fists remain clenched. Donald Trump's escalating threats toward Venezuela aren't just random whims. They're deeply intertwined with the high-stakes confrontation in Ukraine. In the grand theater of global superpowers, Venezuela has become a critical bargaining chip.

The Trump Putin Venezuela Deal 2025 and the New Thaw

Since Trump returned to the White House in early 2025, U.S.-Russia relations have shifted from direct hostility to a transactional partnership. The U.S. has significantly reduced financial aid to Ukraine and even removed Russia from its list of 'direct threats' in the latest National Security Strategy. This shift gives Vladimir Putin reason to believe the war in Ukraine will end on his terms.

Russia holds significant interests in Venezuela's oil industry through joint ventures with PDVSA, but these are often hampered by U.S. sanctions.

Backyard Logic: From Caracas to Kyiv

The Kremlin's strategy is cynical yet pragmatic. If the U.S. uses military force in its 'backyard'—Latin America—it provides a moral equivalence for Russia's actions in its own sphere of influence. For Putin, the potential fall of Nicolas Maduro is a secondary concern compared to securing a victory in Ukraine. A long-term U.S. entanglement in Venezuela might even be the ideal scenario for Moscow.

RegionU.S. Stance (2025)Russian Objective
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