How Trump's Israeli Popularity Could Unlock Middle East Peace

When Donald Trump visited Israel in October 2025, he received a hero's welcome. Not just as a president, but as the broker who ended the war in Gaza. His speech to the Knesset drew near-royal reception from parliamentarians, broadcast live alongside dramatic footage of the final living Israeli hostages walking free.

But Trump's breakthrough isn't just about diplomatic skill. His power stems from something unprecedented: 73% approval ratings among Jewish Israelis—numbers that would make any domestic politician envious.

Breaking a 20-Year Political Deadlock

The failure of Israeli political imagination regarding the Palestinian conflict has been decades in the making. The violent collapse of peace processes in the early 2000s, Hamas's takeover of Gaza in 2007, and repeated wars created a generation of Israelis who internalized conflict as a chronic condition rather than a solvable dispute.

Benjamin Netanyahu bears primary responsibility for this inertia. His career-long strategy of "mowing the grass"—managing rather than resolving the conflict through periodic military action—seemed pragmatic until October 7, 2023, exposed its fundamental failure.

The aftermath revealed the depth of Israeli political fatalism. According to the Peace Index survey, only 31% of Jewish Israelis believed in diplomatic solutions through political agreement, while 63% favored military defeat of Palestinians. A staggering 90% expressed mistrust toward Palestinians.

Yet Israelis also hate the status quo. Our November 2025 polling showed 60% opposed perpetuating the current situation, and nearly 80% acknowledged that continuing conflict harms Israel. The problem? No consensus on alternatives.

The Trump Trust Factor

This psychological and political stalemate required an external force to unlock it. Enter Trump, whom Israelis view as fearless, forceful, and unconditionally committed to Israel. His first-term actions—moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights—proved his credentials to constituencies that normally reject negotiations outright.

Trump's 73% approval rating among Jewish Israelis represents unprecedented trust in a U.S. president. Among self-identified right-wingers—now over 60% of the Jewish public—confidence peaks at 93%. Compare this to Joe Biden's30% rating or Barack Obama's mere 25% during his tenure.

This trust allowed Trump to present Netanyahu with a fait accompli: a comprehensive 20-step roadmap outlining technocratic transitional government in Gaza, Hamas disarmament, international stabilization forces, reconstruction, and eventual transfer to a reformed Palestinian Authority.

Maverick Diplomacy in Action

Trump doesn't operate within traditional international mediation paradigms, which assume meaningful change must originate from conflicting parties themselves. The conventional wisdom holds that third parties should facilitate, not dictate terms.

Trump flipped this script. By presenting a complete plan and leveraging his popularity among Netanyahu's electoral base, he made pushback politically costly for the embattled prime minister. This represents a fundamental departure from decades of U.S. approach to Israeli-Palestinian mediation.

Previous administrations tried coaxing both sides into direct talks through calibrated pressure and incentives. Trump simply presented the solution and dared Netanyahu to reject it publicly.

The Risks of Personality-Driven Peace

Can Trump's approach succeed where traditional diplomacy failed? His high approval ratings certainly provide leverage, but significant challenges remain. Palestinian response to the plan remains unclear. Whether a reformed Palestinian Authority can actually govern Gaza, or Hamas will genuinely disarm, are open questions.

More fundamentally, peace built on one individual's charisma may prove fragile. What happens when Trump leaves office? Can agreements survive without the personal relationships that created them?

The international community also watches nervously. Trump's unilateral approach, while potentially effective, sets precedents that could undermine multilateral diplomatic norms elsewhere.

The Middle East may be about to find out whether personal diplomacy can achieve what institutional approaches could not—or whether it simply creates new forms of instability.