Trump's 'Corporate Takeover' of Venezuela Sets Stage for Cuba Showdown

Twelve U.S. presidents have come and gone since 1959, but Cuba's communist regime has outlasted them all. Now Donald Trump thinks he's found the formula to finally topple it—and he's already tested it successfully in Venezuela.

The Venezuela 'Corporate Takeover' Experiment

When U.S. forces captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro last month, the Trump administration didn't destroy the regime. Instead, they executed what Amherst College political scientist Javier Corrales calls a "corporate takeover"—swapping out the CEO while keeping the company intact.

"In hostile corporate takeovers, a firm acquires a rival but holds off on destroying it," Corrales explained to Quartz. "Instead, the acquiring firm swaps out the chief executive to maintain core operations with an eye for control."

The strategy worked brilliantly. Venezuela's interim president Delcy Rodríguez and most senior officials were handpicked by Maduro himself, yet they now answer to Washington. The U.S. controls $5 billion in oil revenue and requires the Venezuelan government to submit "monthly budgets" to the White House—an arrangement Secretary of State Marco Rubio admits is "novel."

Cuba Faces Its Gravest Crisis in 60+ Years

Now Trump is deploying the same playbook against Cuba, and the island is reeling. With Venezuela's discounted oil supplies cut off, Cuba faces its worst energy crisis since the early 1960s. Hotels are closing, international airlines can't refuel, and blackouts have become routine.

"I cannot think of a moment of crisis this profound for Cuba since the Bay of Pigs," University of Wisconsin-Madison Cuba historian Andrés Pertierra told Quartz. That's saying something—the Bay of Pigs was a CIA-backed invasion that nearly toppled Fidel Castro in 1961.

The numbers tell the story: Cuba has survived 67 years of U.S. embargo, but losing Venezuelan oil represents an existential threat to the communist government's survival.

'Real Blockade' Warning Escalates Pressure

U.S. officials are hardening their rhetoric. Charge d'affaires Mike Hammer reportedly told guests in Havana there's "going to be a real blockade" now. The UN condemned the latest oil sanctions as human rights violations, but the Trump administration isn't backing down.

Rubio offered Cuba a potential off-ramp during the Munich Security Conference, saying the government must provide "more economic and political freedoms" in exchange for loosening the oil blockade. He didn't elaborate on specifics, but the message was clear: regime change remains the goal.

Cuba's Limited Options

Unlike Venezuela, Cuba still has cards to play—though not many. The regime has cracked open the door to negotiations while emphasizing its red lines. "Our plan and our idea and objectives would never be to change the government that we have in Cuba, nor the economic or political system," Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio told CNN.

Trump claims the U.S. is "talking to Cuba" and argues the crisis could be avoided with a quick deal. "It doesn't have to be a humanitarian crisis," he said last week. "I think they probably would come to us and want to make a deal."

But Cuba isn't Venezuela. The communist government has survived 12 U.S. presidents and turned American hostility into a source of nationalist legitimacy. The question is whether economic pressure alone can break what military force and decades of embargo couldn't.

The Venezuela Template's Limits

The Venezuela model's success stemmed from unique circumstances: a regime widely seen as illegitimate after fraudulent 2024 elections, an economy destroyed by corruption, and a population desperate for change. Cuba's situation is different—its government, while unpopular, hasn't faced the same level of internal collapse.

Moreover, the "corporate takeover" approach requires willing partners within the existing regime. In Venezuela, U.S. officials found cooperative figures like Rodríguez. Cuba's leadership appears more unified in resistance, though cracks could emerge under sufficient pressure.