2026 Trump America First Policy: Japanese Pundits Predict a Year of 'Great Chaos'

The era of the American Atlas is over. 2026 is set to be a year of "great chaos" for both the world and Japan. Leading Japanese commentators Akira Ikegami and Masaru Sato warn that the shift in U.S. foreign policy under the Donald Trump administration is dismantling the global order as we know it.

The 2026 Trump America First Policy and Geopolitical Fractures

At the heart of the turmoil is the new National Security Strategy (NSS) issued last December 4. The document explicitly states that the United States will no longer bear the weight of the entire world on its shoulders. This marks a sharp departure from the 2022 NSS, pivoting toward aggressive non-interventionism and a literal interpretation of "America First."

Japan is feeling the heat. According to Sato, during a phone call on November 25 last year, Trump reportedly told Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae to "act a little more maturely" regarding her stance on Taiwan. While U.S. Ambassador George Glass has been critical of China, Trump himself has avoided using terms like "authoritarian country," suggesting a pragmatic shift in relations with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

Domestic Legal Battles and Extreme Risks

Domestically, the U.S. faces a looming constitutional crisis. Ikegami pointed out that the Supreme Court will soon rule on the constitutionality of tariffs imposed by executive order. An unconstitutional ruling could spark a wave of lawsuits from corporations and consumers demanding refunds, potentially paralyzing the U.S. economy.

With the mid-term elections approaching in November, pundits believe the Republican Party will struggle to maintain its majority, ensuring that 2026 remains a year of relentless political and social friction.