The Paradox of America First: Trump’s Agenda Driving Global Pivot to China Influence in 2026

It's the ultimate geopolitical irony. President Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda, designed to restore American dominance, is instead helping to make China great again. A massive global survey suggests that the US's inward turn is ushering in a truly multipolar world order.

Surveying 21 Nations: The Trump America First China Influence 2026

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), nearly 26,000 people across 21 countries overwhelmingly expect Chinese global influence to surge over the next decade. The report, published on January 16, 2026, highlights a significant shift in perception one year after Trump's return to the White House.

Respondents noted that China isn't just rising geopolitically; it's already leading in critical sectors like renewable technology and electric vehicles (EVs). The expectation of growing Chinese influence is high in South Africa (83%), Brazil (72%), and even within the United States (54%).

Allies, Partners, and the Outliers

The geopolitical map is being redrawn. In India, a country with traditionally rocky ties to Beijing, nearly half of the population now views China as an ally or a necessary partner. Conversely, South Korea and Ukraine remain the only major territories where a majority views China primarily as a rival or adversary.