True Ventures Jon Callaghan Smartphone Prediction: The End of iPhone by 2030

Your smartphone has barely 10 years left. Jon Callaghan, co-founder of True Ventures, doesn't think we'll be using smartphones the way we do now in five years—and maybe not at all in ten. This isn't just armchair theorizing; it's the core thesis of a firm that managed $6 billion across multiple funds and successfully backed outliers like Fitbit and Ring long before they became household names.

The Efficiency Gap in Current Interfaces

Callaghan's argument is straightforward: our phones are actually lousy at being the interface between humans and intelligence. He describes the act of pulling out a device to confirm a text or write an email as "super inefficient" and prone to disrupting normal life. While the smartphone market stagnates with a 2% annual growth rate, wearables and voice-enabled devices are expanding at double-digit rates, signaling a massive shift in consumer behavior.

Sandbar: Betting on the Post-Mobile Behavior

The latest manifestation of this thesis is Sandbar, a voice-activated ring worn on the index finger. Described as a "thought companion," its sole purpose is capturing and organizing voice notes. Unlike multi-purpose gadgets, it focuses on one fundamental human need. Founded by alumni of CTRL-Labs (acquired by Meta), Sandbar represents a philosophy where the interface disappears, and the behavior takes center stage.