俄烏戰爭恐再打18個月！僵局無解，誰將在這場消耗戰中勝出？
最新分析預測，俄烏戰爭可能再持續12至18個月。PRISM深入探討這場消耗戰背後的國際角力、對全球造成的深遠影響，以及未來的可能走向。
俄烏戰爭的終點究竟在何方？最新分析指出，這場曠日持久的衝突恐怕還會再持續 12 到 18 個月。若從今天（2025年12月24日）起算，這意味著戰火可能將一路蔓延至2026年底，甚至2027年年中。這場看不見盡頭的消耗戰，正為全球地緣政治格局蒙上厚重陰影。
陷入泥淖的耐力賽
目前戰況呈現典型的消耗戰格局，烏克蘭與俄羅斯雙方都無法取得決定性突破，陷入了比拚耐力的僵局。烏克蘭的抵抗極度依賴以美國為首的西方國家所提供的軍事與財政援助，但援助的可持續性始終面臨政治變數。另一方面，俄羅斯雖然遭受嚴厲的國際制裁，但據信已透過轉向戰時經濟、並深化與盟友的合作，維持了其戰爭機器的運作。這種脆弱的平衡，正是衝突不斷延長的核心因素。
放眼2027：全球秩序的嚴峻挑戰
倘若戰事延續至2027年，其連鎖效應將舉足輕重。全球能源與糧食供應鏈的動盪恐將成為新常態，各國國防支出也將持續攀升。戰事的長期化，也讓透過外交途徑解決爭端的可能性變得更加渺茫。除了烏克蘭本身面臨的巨大損耗，持續提供援助的歐美國家內部也可能出現「援助疲勞」，進而引發民意轉向的風險。國際社會面對的，已不僅是促成停火，更是如何建構長久和平的艱鉅課題。
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