菲律賓掌舵2026年東協：海上安全成焦點，糧食與能源挑戰如何兼顧？
菲律賓將於2026年擔任東協輪值主席國，計畫將海上安全作為核心議程。然而，馬尼拉必須在區域地緣政治與成員國對糧食安全、能源穩定及災害應變的迫切需求之間，尋求艱難的平衡。
2026年東協（ASEAN）輪值主席國的接力棒，即將交到菲律賓手中。根據地緣政治分析師唐・麥克萊恩・吉爾（Don McLain Gill）的觀察，馬尼拉已明確釋出訊號，計畫將海上安全列為首要議程。然而，在糧食安全、能源穩定與災害應變等迫切需求下，此舉無疑是一場高難度的平衡木表演。
劍指海上安全的核心議程
菲律賓計畫在2026年主席國任內強推海上安全議題，反映了其對當前區域情勢的深刻憂慮。尤其在南海議題上，菲律賓面臨直接的國安壓力。外界普遍認為，馬尼拉希望藉由主席國的平台，凝聚東協共識，共同倡導以國際法為基礎的海洋秩序，應對日益複雜的海上挑戰。
現實壓力下的艱難權衡
然而，宏大的地緣政治議程，必須面對現實的民生壓力。對於許多東協成員國而言，糧食安全、能源價格波動及日益頻繁的極端氣候災害，才是更為燃眉之急的課題。正如分析所指，如果菲律賓過度聚焦於海上安全，而忽略了這些攸關經濟與社會穩定的核心議題，可能引發部分成員國的反彈，進而削弱東協的內部團結。如何在兩者之間取得平衡，將是馬尼拉的重大挑戰。
強權競逐下的外交考驗
菲律賓的議程設定，也無法脫離美中兩大強權在區域內的競逐格局。強調海上安全，雖與菲律賓近年來向美國靠攏的外交政策一致，卻也可能使其與最大貿易夥伴中國的關係更趨緊張。東協各國在美中之間皆有各自的盤算，要讓所有成員國為菲律賓的議程背書，並非易事。這場外交博弈，考驗著馬尼拉的智慧與手腕。
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