After the Bondi Attack, Scrutiny Turns to the Philippines—But the Real Threat is Global

The finger of blame for Australia's worst mass-casualty terrorist attack quickly pointed to the Philippines, amid reports the Bondi shooters received training there. However, the evidence for a direct link is tenuous at best, and the incident reveals a more complex picture involving the fragile Bangsamoro peace process and the reconstitution of the Islamic State as a global threat.

Conflicting Narratives: IS Praise and a Filipino Rebuttal

Soon after the December 14 attack, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese indicated the perpetrators were inspired by the Islamic State. Then, on December 18, IS's Al-Naba magazine praised the father-son duo as the 'Pride of Sydney' in its issue 526. Yet, the group stopped short of claiming responsibility, instead emphasizing its strategy of inciting lone-actor attacks, which don't require formal connections to the organization.

The Philippines government pushed back forcefully. National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano asserted that describing Mindanao as a terrorist breeding ground is 'outdated and misleading,' calling for evidence-based reporting. This reflects Manila's frustration that its significant counter-terrorism efforts are being overlooked.

The Reality in Mindanao: A Weakened, Insular IS Presence

The southern island of Mindanao has a 50-year history of cyclical violence and peace negotiations. The most recent push led to the formation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in 2019, ushering in a promising period of stability. However, local IS-aligned groups are committed to collapsing this peace process.

However, a Guggenheim-funded study of over 250 former combatants offers crucial insight. It shows that pro-IS groups have been devastated by counter-terrorism operations, particularly since the 2017Marawi Siege. The picture that emerges is of groups that are weak, fragmented, and insular, operating primarily through close family and kinship networks. This very insularity makes it extremely difficult for foreigners to join their ranks.