People's Party Surges in Polls Ahead of 2026 Thailand General Election

A wave of reform is sweeping through Bangkok. Just weeks before the February 8 general election, Thailand's opposition People's Party has taken a commanding lead in multiple opinion surveys, signaling a potential shift in the nation's political landscape.

2026 Thailand General Election People's Party Leads the Race

According to a survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) conducted January 5–8, 30.4% of respondents backed the People's Party, up from 25.28% last month. The incumbent Bhumjaithai party followed with 21.96%, while the Pheu Thai party trailed at 15.72%. Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the People's Party leader, is now the top choice for prime minister with 24.76% support.

The polling data suggests the electorate is concentrating its mind. Undecided voters dropped from over 40% to just 14.12% in a single month. This trend mirrors the 2023 election, where the party's predecessor, the Move Forward Party, won a plurality but was blocked from power by the military-appointed Senate.

The End of the Senate Veto

The most significant change for 2026 is that the Senate will no longer participate in the vote to confirm a prime minister. This removes a major constitutional hurdle that previously allowed the military-backed establishment to veto progressive governments. The People's Party continues to push for bold reforms, including amending the lese-majeste law and ending military conscription.

However, Anutin's popularity has also risen due to recent border conflicts with Cambodia, tapping into nationalist sentiments. The primary question remains whether the urban electorate's desire for reform will outweigh the conservative establishment's attempts to maintain its grip on power.