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Nature vs. Policy: Indonesia B50 Biodiesel Mandate 2026 Faces Reality Check

2 min readSource

Sumatra floods threaten the Indonesia B50 biodiesel mandate 2026. Discover how climate change is impacting palm oil production and global prices.

Indonesia's ambitious push for energy independence is hitting a watery wall. While the government is double-downing on its Indonesia B50 biodiesel mandate 2026, devastating floods in Sumatra are raising alarms about whether the country can actually produce enough palm oil to meet its own targets.

Supply Squeeze for Indonesia B50 Biodiesel Mandate 2026

According to reports from Jakarta on January 13, 2026, the Prabowo administration's plan to increase the palm oil blend in diesel to 50% is being threatened by extreme weather. The flash floods in Aceh and other parts of Sumatra haven't just displaced people; they've submerged vital plantations, leading to a projected spike in palm oil prices for 2026.

Flash floods hit Sumatra's palm oil heartlands, damaging yields.
Indonesia secures a US tariff deal while pushing forward with the B50 rollout.
Target for commercializing palm-based jet fuels.

Economic Fallout and Global Pricing

It's not just a local problem. As the world's largest palm oil producer, Indonesia's internal supply crunch is expected to send global prices soaring. Industry analysts warn that if production doesn't recover quickly, the government might face a tough choice: prioritize food (cooking oil) or fuel (B50).

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