$6.5B Bitcoin Loss, But Saylor's Premium Persists

713,502 bitcoins. $6.5 billion in losses. Yet MicroStrategy's stock still trades at a premium to its crypto holdings. In a market where logic often takes a backseat, this might be the most puzzling trade of 2026.

The Numbers Don't Lie

MicroStrategy (MSTR) bought its bitcoin stash at an average price of $76,052. With bitcoin hovering near $67,000, that's roughly $6.5 billion underwater—a 12% loss from their cost basis that would make most CFOs reach for the antacids.

Thursday delivered the company's worst single-day performance in nearly a year, with shares plunging 13%. The stock has now cratered 66% year-over-year and sits nearly 80% below its post-Trump election high from November 2024.

Yet here's where it gets interesting: despite this bloodbath, MicroStrategy continues trading at a modest premium to its bitcoin holdings. The mNAV (multiple of net asset value) sits at 1.09, suggesting the market still sees something beyond mere crypto exposure.

The Saylor Paradox

This premium creates a fascinating dynamic. Michael Saylor and his team can theoretically continue issuing stock to buy more bitcoin without diluting existing shareholders—assuming the premium holds. It's a financial perpetual motion machine, powered by market psychology rather than physics.

But what sustains this premium when the underlying asset is bleeding? Investors appear to be pricing in more than just bitcoin ownership. They're betting on Saylor's leverage strategy, his unwavering conviction, and perhaps the belief that MicroStrategy has become something more than a software company that happens to own crypto.

The fourth-quarter earnings call tonight won't reveal surprises in the numbers—everyone knows the bitcoin position. The real question is whether Saylor can maintain investor confidence amid what feels like a market-wide panic.

Warning Signs in Preferred Land

MicroStrategy's perpetual preferred equity instrument STRC tells a different story. Trading around $95, below its $100 par value, it faces a potential dividend step-up to 11.5% if it doesn't recover by month's end.

This isn't isolated. Strive's comparable product SATA has fallen roughly 4% to $86, while Strive's common stock (ASST) dropped 11% to around $0.52. The preferred equity market is sending its own message about risk appetite.

}