Saudi Arabia UAE Yemen Conflict 2026: From Allies to Direct Confrontation
The alliance between Saudi Arabia and the UAE has fractured in Yemen, leading to direct military escalation in 2026. Explore the impact of the STC offensive and the potential partition.
The cracks in the Gulf alliance have finally shattered. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are now in an unprecedented direct military confrontation over the future of Yemen. While both powers intervened years ago to support the internationally recognized government, their diverging agendas have pushed the country toward a permanent partition.
The Unprecedented Rift Between Gulf Powers
The escalation peaked on December 2, 2025, when the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) launched a massive offensive in eastern Yemen. They seized territory in the oil-rich Hadramawt province, which shares a direct border with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh viewed this move as a direct threat to its national security, calling it a 'red line.'
We warn that Saudi Arabia's national security is a red line that cannot be crossed by proxy movements.
UAE Withdrawal and the Shadow of Proxy Warfare
In a sudden twist, the UAE agreed to withdraw its forces from Yemen following a demand from Yemen's Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) and intense pressure from Riyadh. However, analysts suggest this physical withdrawal won't change much on the ground.
Since 2019, the UAE has relied on a network of over 90,000 local fighters to project power. "The UAE hasn't had a significant troop presence for years; they rely on proxies," says Farea al-Muslimi of Chatham House. The withdrawal might just be a strategic rebranding while the STC continues its push for an independent southern state.
Humanitarian Consequences
The infighting worsens a crisis where 19 million people require urgent assistance. With 377,000 lives already lost since the war's start, the current escalation threatens to trigger another wave of famine among Yemen's 40 million citizens.
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