Paris Talks, Day One: The Sound of Silence

Six rounds of talks. No deal. And somehow, that's not the most alarming part.

On Sunday, delegations from the world's two largest economies sat down together in Paris for the sixth time, hoping — or at least appearing to hope — to make progress on a trade dispute that has reshaped global supply chains, rattled financial markets, and forced governments from Seoul to São Paulo to pick sides. Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led their respective teams. Journalists waited outside the venue. Nothing came out.

Talks are set to continue Monday, after which the American delegation departs. The Chinese side stays through Tuesday. Make of that asymmetry what you will.

How We Got Here

The US-China trade war didn't start in Paris. It started in 2018, when the first Trump administration slapped sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods, triggering a tit-for-tat escalation that the Biden years managed but never resolved. Now, with Trump back in office and Bessent steering economic policy, the sixth round of talks represents another attempt to find — or at least gesture toward — stable ground.

The structural disagreements haven't changed. Washington wants Beijing to address what it calls unfair trade practices: state subsidies that tilt the playing field, forced technology transfers, and intellectual property violations. Beijing frames American tariffs as economic coercion and an infringement on its sovereign right to develop. These aren't positions that yield to a single good meeting.

Choosing Paris as the venue is itself a signal. A neutral European capital, away from the domestic political pressures of Washington and Beijing, gives both sides room to probe without the optics of visiting the other's turf.

Sponsored

Advertise with Us

[email protected]

Sponsored

What Silence Costs — and Buys

In diplomatic terms, a quiet first day isn't necessarily a failed one. High-level talks between principals — not just technical delegations — often begin with calibration rather than concession. Both He and Bessent are reading the room before showing their hands.

But the cost of prolonged ambiguity is real. US businesses operating in or trading with China face persistent uncertainty on tariffs, market access, and regulatory treatment. American consumers, still feeling the weight of elevated prices on imported goods, have a stake in whether these talks lead anywhere. And global investors, who've learned to watch US-China relations as a leading indicator of risk appetite, are watching Paris closely.

For Bessent, the politics are delicate. Easing tariffs could help cool inflation pressures at home — but opens him to accusations of going soft on China. For He Lifeng, China's economy is navigating a property sector slowdown and weak domestic demand, making external stability valuable — but Xi Jinping's government cannot afford to be seen as capitulating to American pressure.

Both sides want a deal. Neither wants to be seen wanting one more than the other.

The View From Everywhere Else

The rest of the world isn't a passive observer here. Countries like South Korea, Japan, Germany, and Vietnam have built significant portions of their export economies around the assumption that US-China trade flows in a certain direction. Every round of talks — and every round of silence — sends ripples through their planning.

Europe, hosting these talks on its soil, has its own complicated relationship with both powers. The EU has been simultaneously deepening trade ties with China and aligning with US positions on technology and security. Paris is a fitting backdrop for that tension.

For emerging markets, a US-China détente could mean more stable commodity prices and supply chains. A breakdown could accelerate the fragmentation of the global trading system into competing blocs — a scenario that would force smaller economies into uncomfortable choices.