2026 Oscar nominations predictions: Will Paul Thomas Anderson Finally Win?

It's a battle of titans. After 11 career nominations without a win, Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA) might finally end his losing streak at the 98th Academy Awards. As of January 5, 2026, his latest thriller, 'One Battle After Another,' has emerged as a monolithic frontrunner for Best Picture.

2026 Oscar nominations predictions: The Frontrunners

According to Entertainment Weekly, the industry is increasingly enamored by Anderson's timely thriller. The film holds a massive grip on several major categories, with Leonardo DiCaprio leading the Best Actor race. Supporting turns by Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor further solidify its position as a powerhouse contender that could sweep the acting branches.

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Not far behind is Chloé Zhao's 'Hamnet.' The 'Nomadland' director has generated significant buzz with a prestige drama featuring Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal. Meanwhile, Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' occupies a unique spot as a runaway box office smash that also commands critical respect, bolstered by major Golden Globe nominations.

Global Dramas and Potential Upsets

The Academy's growing international membership continues to favor high-brow global dramas like 'Sentimental Value' and 'It Was Just an Accident.' However, some expected heavyweights are stumbling. 'Wicked: For Good' earned divisive reviews compared to its predecessor, and Timothée Chalamet's 'Marty Supreme' missed key Golden Globe categories, signaling that the race remains fluid.