Nvidia China H200 Chip Exports 2026: Valuation and Growth Outlook

Nvidia's market cap hit $4.5 trillion, yet Wall Street seems hungry for more. Despite a major breakthrough in the Chinese market, shares started the new year flat as investors weighed geopolitical risks against massive growth potential. Bloomberg reported early Thursday that China will allow the import of Nvidia's H200 AI chips, a move that could significantly boost the company's unforecasted earnings.

Nvidia China H200 Chip Exports and Market Volatility

To navigate the delicate trade balance, Nvidia has reportedly implemented strict payment terms for Chinese buyers. According to Reuters, these include upfront payments and no-cancellation clauses. While shares dropped more than 2.5% following the news, analysts like Jim Cramer attribute this to profit-taking after a 10% rally in late December rather than fundamental weakness.

The Vera Rubin Era and $10 Trillion Market

The focus is shifting to the new Vera Rubin platform, which is now in full production. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized that AI advancements will require replacing $10 trillion worth of traditional computing infrastructure. CFO Colette Kress noted that their 2025-2026 sales guide of $500 billion has "definitely gotten larger" as orders for the latest architecture pour in.

Valuation Analysis: Is NVDA Still Cheap?

Trading at $185, Nvidia is currently valued at less than 25 times forward earnings. With earnings expected to grow at a 32% CAGR over the next three years, the growth-adjusted PEG ratio sits below one—a highly attractive level for growth investors. Technical support is seen around the $170 level, offering a potential entry point for those without a position.