美韓同盟的權力轉移：南韓尋求戰時指揮權，是自主還是新變局？
南韓正積極尋求從美國手中收回戰時作戰指揮權（OPCON），此舉獲川普政府支持。在美中競爭加劇的背景下，美韓同盟的權力轉移將如何重塑東亞安全格局？
握手背後，暗流洶湧。美國與南韓長達數十年的軍事同盟，正迎來一次深刻的權力結構調整。首爾方面正積極尋求從華盛頓手中收回「戰時作戰指揮權」（OPCON），而川普政府似乎樂見其成。這場變動不僅攸關朝鮮半島的防務，更是在美中競爭日益激烈的地緣政治棋盤上，投下了一顆耐人尋味的棋子。
首爾的「自主國防」之路
南韓總統李在明的政府已將收回OPCON視為其2030年任期結束前的核心目標。戰時作戰指揮權，指的是在戰爭爆發時指揮美韓聯軍的權力，自1950-53年韓戰以來，一直由美方將領掌握。一旦移交，將由韓籍四星上將擔任聯軍司令，美方將領轉為副司令，這將從根本上重塑同盟的指揮體系。上個月，南韓國防部長安圭伯與美國國防部長彼得·赫格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）達成共識，同意制定一份旨在「加速」移交進程的路線圖。
華府的盤算：制衡中國與分攤責任
對於盟友尋求更大的自主權，美國非但沒有顯著阻力，反而似乎在鼓勵南韓提高國防開支，承擔更多責任。分析人士指出，華府此舉意在利用盟友的力量，以應對來自中國的「步步進逼的威脅」。仁荷大學國際政治學教授南昌熙向韓聯社表示：「美國顯然相信，透過增強南韓能力來協助制衡中國所能獲得的好處，超過了其自主性增加可能帶來的風險。」
此外，美國總統川普在10月下旬的峰會上，對南韓建造核動力潛艦的計畫表示支持，此舉被廣泛解讀為希望南韓能在應對中國威脅上發揮更大作用。然而，部分觀察家認為，川普的支持更多是出於交易考量，而非地緣戰略。在此之前，首爾剛承諾對美投資3500億美元，以換取關稅減讓。
潛在風險與同盟的未來
儘管高層達成共識，但執行層面仍存在謹慎的聲音。駐韓美軍司令澤維爾·布倫森將軍（Xavier Brunson）強調，遵守雙方商定的條件比設定時間表更重要。同時，對美國安全承諾可靠性的質疑，也是促使南韓尋求自主的原因之一。前美國駐韓大使菲利普·戈德堡（Philip Goldberg）警告，從長遠來看，OPCON移交等「現代化」舉措可能導致同盟的「更大分離」，為美韓同盟的未來凝聚力帶來隱憂。
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