Netanyahu's 'Middle East Hexagon' Alliance Faces Reality Check

Benjamin Netanyahu, wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, has unveiled an ambitious vision: a "hexagon of alliances" spanning the Middle East to counter what he calls "radical" adversaries. But there's a problem—many of his potential partners are backing away.

Modi's Warm Embrace, Cold Regional Reality

The Israeli Prime Minister announced his grand alliance while revealing Indian PM Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to Israel. "We will create an entire system, essentially a 'hexagon' of alliances around or within the Middle East," Netanyahu declared, naming India, Greece, Cyprus, and unnamed Arab, African, and Asian countries as potential members.

Modi quickly endorsed the idea, posting on X about India's "enduring friendship with Israel, built on trust, innovation and a shared commitment to peace and progress." For Netanyahu, securing India—a nation of 1.4 billion people and growing economic clout—represents a significant diplomatic coup.

But the enthusiasm from New Delhi contrasts sharply with the cooling reception elsewhere. Since October 2023, Israel's war in Gaza has fundamentally altered regional dynamics, turning potential allies into critics and making Netanyahu's hexagon look more like a shrinking circle.

The Abraham Accords Under Strain

The reality check is stark. Turkey's President Erdogan has become one of Netanyahu's harshest critics, while Saudi Arabia has accused Israel of genocide. Even countries that normalized relations through the 2020 Abraham Accords—UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco—have grown increasingly uncomfortable with Israel's actions in Gaza.

Saudi Arabia, once seen as the crown jewel of potential normalization, has repeatedly rebuked Israel in recent months. The kingdom condemned Israel's recognition of Somalia's breakaway region Somaliland and has criticized Israeli moves toward West Bank annexation. The prospects for Saudi-Israeli normalization, a key US diplomatic priority, appear to be evaporating.

Netanyahu didn't specify what he meant by the "emerging radical Sunni axis," though he's previously identified the Muslim Brotherhood as its core. This framing reveals a fundamental misreading of regional sentiment—much of the Sunni world's criticism of Israel stems not from radicalism but from genuine outrage over civilian casualties in Gaza.

India's Delicate Balancing Act

India's position illustrates the complexities Netanyahu faces. While Modi's government has strengthened ties with Israel through defense cooperation and technology partnerships, India maintains 200 million Muslim citizens whose sentiments matter politically. The country has historically supported Palestinian rights and practices non-aligned diplomacy.

For India, the relationship with Israel is primarily transactional—focused on defense technology, cybersecurity, and agricultural innovation. Joining an explicitly anti-Iran alliance would force New Delhi to abandon its traditional strategic autonomy and potentially complicate relations with other regional powers.

The Limits of Military Success

Netanyahu's confidence stems partly from Israel's military achievements. The country has significantly weakened Iran's "axis of resistance," particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. Last June's 12-day conflict with Iran, which saw US forces join Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, demonstrated Israel's enhanced military capabilities.

But military victories don't automatically translate into diplomatic alliances. Greece and Cyprus, while aligned with Israel on energy cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean, must balance their relationships within EU frameworks. Arab nations face domestic pressure over Gaza, making public alignment with Israel politically costly.

The answer may determine not just the future of Middle Eastern geopolitics, but whether force alone can sustain international relationships in an interconnected world.