US-China strategic rivalry 2035: Why Beijing Might Reach Equal Footing

They're shaking hands, but their fists remain clenched. Yan Xuetong, a leading Chinese political scientist, predicts that by 2035, the United States will likely lose its clear strategic edge over China. In his latest book, 'Inflection of History: International Configuration and Order 2025-2035', Yan argues that the next 10 years will redefine global power dynamics.

A Decade of Intense US-China Strategic Rivalry

According to the South China Morning Post, the honorary dean of Tsinghua University believes the competition will stay intense. He warns of potential escalations during Donald Trump's second term, which could lead to a diplomatic crisis. However, as the two superpowers reach a state of parity by 2035, the risk of a direct hot war might actually decrease under subsequent administrations because neither side will have a decisive advantage.

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New Global Order: Side-Picking and Neutrality

Yan's vision for 2035 suggests that 'issue-based side-picking' will become the new normal. He expects Russia and Brazil to forge stronger strategic ties with Beijing than with Washington. Meanwhile, major European players like Germany and France are predicted to pursue relative neutrality, hedging their bets between the two giants to protect their own interests.

Traditional US allies aren't exempt from this shift. While India, Japan, and the UK will likely keep closer ties with the US, Yan expects them to be less proactive in Washington's containment efforts against China. This reflects a growing trend of nations prioritizing national sovereignty and economic pragmatism over rigid alliance blocks.