Trump Strikes and the Sahel Security Crisis 2026: A Region on the Edge

The Sahel is a powder keg, and the fuses are being lit from both sides. On December 25, 2025, US President Donald Trump launched what he termed a 'powerful and deadly strike' against ISIS targets in northwest Nigeria. This military escalation comes at a precarious moment, occurring just days after the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—commissioned a 5,000-strong joint military force.

Sahel Security Crisis 2026: The Rise of Rival Blocs

West Africa's security architecture is fracturing into two competing camps. On one side, ECOWAS is planning a massive 260,000-strong counterterrorism force backed by a $2.5 billion annual budget. On the other, the AES has severed ties with the West, pivoting toward Russia as its primary security partner. According to reports from Al Jazeera, this isn't just a fight against insurgents anymore; it's a potential prelude to interstate war.

Tensions nearly boiled over when a Nigerian C-130 aircraft made an emergency landing in Burkina Faso. The AES interpreted this as a violation of sovereignty, authorizing its air force to neutralize any future intruders. With the US now deepening its partnership with Nigeria, the risk of cross-border 'accidents' during airstrikes has skyrocketed.

A New Theatre for Global Power Rivalry

The collapse of the G5 Sahel framework in 2023 has left a vacuum filled by 'New Cold War' dynamics. A Russia-backed AES now faces off against a US and France-backed ECOWAS. If these groups don't negotiate a shared concept of operations, the very forces meant to fight terrorism might end up fighting each other, leaving even more space for groups like ISWAP and Boko Haram to thrive.