Mexico Homicide Rate 2025 Hits Record Low Amid Skepticism

The numbers look promising on paper, but clandestine graves tell a different story. Mexico just reported its Mexico homicide rate 2025 at 17.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, the lowest figure since 2016. While the government credits its new intelligence-driven strategy, analysts warn that these statistics might be masking a darker reality of missing persons.

Behind the Mexico Homicide Rate 2025 Decline

President Claudia Sheinbaum announced during her daily press conference that murders dropped 40% between September 2024 and December 2025. She claimed this reflects 34 fewer homicides every day compared to the peak of the previous administration. In 2018, the rate stood as high as 29 per 100,000 people.

The Sheinbaum administration has moved away from the previous 'hugs, not bullets' policy, instead prioritizing interagency coordination and intelligence. This shift came amid significant pressure from the United States to harden security measures against cartels.

Why Analysts Urge Caution Over Official Data

Despite the positive headlines, security experts are skeptical. Lisa Sánchez, director of Mexico United Against Crime, points out that the number of missing persons continues to rise, now exceeding 133,000. She suggests that some violent deaths may be misclassified as accidents or remains uncounted because the victims are simply listed as missing.

Security analyst David Saucedo offers another grim explanation: violence might decrease in regions where criminal groups have consolidated total control. When one cartel eliminates its rivals, open conflict ceases, but criminal activity continues unabated. States like Sinaloa and Michoacan remain hotspots for organized crime despite the reported national decline.