Lighter LIT Token FDV 2025: Traders Split on $3 Billion Valuation Post-Launch

A $3 billion valuation is the new line in the sand for Lighter's LIT token. Following Tuesday's massive airdrop, the market's drawn a sharp divide over whether this Ethereum-based Layer 2 DEX deserves its multibillion-dollar heavyweight status before open trading even begins.

Lighter LIT Token FDV 2025: Premarket Optimism vs. Prediction Market Caution

Premarket trading data from CoinMarketCap places LIT near $3.20, implying a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $3 billion. However, the story on Polymarket is more nuanced. Traders there give even odds for LIT maintaining a $3 billion FDV, while bets on $4 billion or $6 billion outcomes have largely evaporated since the market turbulence in October.

The Perils of Low-Float Launches

Recent launches like Monad and EigenLayer have shown that high FDVs can be misleading when circulating supply is low. While Lighter boasts a healthy $2.7 billion in daily perpetuals volume according to Dune data, the actual demand for the governance token remains untested in an open liquid environment. Traders worry that FDV acts more as a distorted forward-looking estimate rather than a reflection of real-time utility.