Lebanon Hezbollah Disarmament 2026: A Fragile Peace Moves North of Litani

The weapons may be gone from the southern border, but the sparks of conflict are shifting north. On January 8, 2026, Lebanon's Army Commander Rodolphe Haykal is set to brief the government on the completion of Phase 1 of the disarmament plan. While this marks the dismantling of Hezbollah's infrastructure south of the Litani River, mistrust between Israel and the group remains at a breaking point.

Lebanon Hezbollah Disarmament 2026: The Dangerous Shift North

The army claims it met its self-imposed deadline at the end of 2025 to clear the area between the border and the Litani River. However, Israel has already delivered a skeptical verdict. According to Israeli officials, Hezbollah is rebuilding military capabilities faster than they are being dismantled. In contrast, UN peacekeepers report no evidence of such reconstruction, highlighting a significant gap in intelligence and perspective.

Attention now shifts to Phase 2, which expands operations north of the Litani River up to the Awali River. Hezbollah has made it clear that disarmament in this zone is off the table. Naim Qassem, the group's Secretary-General, argued that Lebanon isn't required to act further while Israel fails to implement its own commitments.

Iranian Influence and the Risk of Internal Conflict

The timing of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi's arrival in Beirut is seen as a strategic move. Iran is expected to resist any move that leads to the complete elimination of Hezbollah's arsenal. Domestic analysts warn that attempting to disarm the group north of the Litani could spark a violent reaction from the Shia community, potentially plunging the country into internal strife.