高盛上調日經目標至5萬點！2026年日股三大引擎與潛在風險全解析
華爾街巨頭高盛將日經225指數目標價上調至5萬點。本文深入解析企業治理改革、日圓貶值等三大上漲動力，並警示投資人必須留意的潛在風險。
日經指數5萬點或許不再遙不可及。華爾街投資銀行巨頭高盛（Goldman Sachs）於2025年12月25日發布最新的2026年日本市場展望報告，將日經225指數的12個月目標價從原先的45,000點大幅上調至50,000點，為市場投下震撼彈。此舉顯示，高盛看好企業治理改革與日圓持續疲軟的雙重利多，將有力推升日本企業的獲利前景。
三大引擎，點燃多頭氣焰
高盛的樂觀看法，主要建立在三大基礎之上。首先，由東京證券交易所領銜的企業治理改革已見成效。交易所強力要求上市公司重視股東權益報酬率（ROE）與股價淨值比（PBR），促使企業積極實施庫藏股及提高股息，股東回報蔚然成風。
其次，日圓貶值的趨勢料將持續。報告預測，美元兌日圓匯率將維持在155日圓兌1美元的水平，這將為汽車、精密機械等出口導向型企業的營收帶來巨大挹注。第三大引擎，則是日本經濟終於告別「失落的三十年」，正式走出通貨緊縮的泥沼。溫和的薪資成長正逐步刺激國內消費，為內需型企業的業績注入活水。
資金追捧？三大板塊脫穎而出
基於上述宏觀分析，高盛建議「加碼」（Overweight）三大板塊：受惠於全球科技浪潮的半導體等科技股、因原物料價格上漲及股東回報政策而受益的綜合商社，以及在利率正常化環境下利差有望擴大的金融股。相對地，電力、瓦斯等公用事業與國內導向的零售業，則被評為「減碼」（Underweight）。
居安思危：三大潛在風險 然而，報告同時警告投資人須留意三大風險。其一，若日圓意外急速升值，將嚴重侵蝕出口企業的獲利。其二，全球經濟成長放緩的幅度超出預期，將對日本的出口造成直接衝擊。最後，日本央行（BOJ）的政策動向，例如升息速度快於市場預期，也可能為股市的多頭氣焰潑上一盆冷水。
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