122.3兆日圓創新高！日本2026年度預算案曝光，3%利率假設敲響市場警鐘
日本政府擬定2026年度預算草案，總額達122.3兆日圓創歷史新高。其中以3%利率估算國債成本，引發市場對利率上升和財政紀律的擔憂。
日本的零利率時代即將告終？根據日經新聞報導，日本政府正擬定史上規模最大的2026年度預算草案，總額高達122.3兆日圓（約7850億美元），不僅連續兩年創下歷史新高，更罕見地以3%的利率假設來估算國債成本，為全球金融市場投下震撼彈。
天文數字預算與背後考量
由首相高市早苗（Sanae Takaichi）領導的內閣，預計最快將在12月26日批准這份草案並提交國會。預算規模再次膨脹，反映了國防開支和社會保障成本的持續增長，這對日本的財政狀況構成嚴峻挑戰。
「3%利率」的重大訊號
此次預算案最舉足輕重的細節，在於計算債務利息成本的長期利率假設被設定在約3%。此舉被市場解讀為一個明確的政策信號：日本政府正為結束多年的超寬鬆貨幣政策做準備。一旦利率走高，日本龐大的國債利息負擔將顯著加重，市場對其財政紀律的擔憂已然浮現。
日本利率政策的任何轉變，都可能對全球債券、外匯及股票市場造成連鎖反應。投資者應將此視為關鍵風險指標，密切關注日本央行的後續動向。
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