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EconomyAI Analysis

Japan’s $57B Defense Surge: Buying Jets But Losing People

2 min readSource

Japan's fiscal 2026 defense budget hits a record 9 trillion yen ($57B). While equipment spending doubles, manpower investment lags, raising concerns over personnel shortages.

Japan's buying the world's best jets, but there's no one left to fly them. The fiscal 2026 budget proposal, approved by the cabinet, earmarks a record 9 trillion yen ($57 billion) for defense. It's a massive 67% jump from 2022, yet the spending remains heavily tilted toward hardware over humanity.

Hardware Heaviness and the US Link

While spending on equipment has effectively doubled, the budget for personnel and training saw a meager 10% increase. Much of the capital is flowing toward expensive US hardware, including the F-35B stealth fighter. Rising costs for these assets, exacerbated by a weak yen, are putting Tokyo in a tight spot as it tries to keep up with regional security threats.

The Empty Cockpit Crisis

Money can't buy soldiers in a shrinking nation. The Self-Defense Forces continue to struggle with chronic labor shortages, consistently missing recruitment targets. Analysts warn that even the most advanced destroyers and jets are useless if there aren't enough trained professionals to operate them. It's a growing dilemma that the new administration hasn't fully addressed.

The record-high defense budget adds significant pressure to Japan's public debt, potentially impacting long-term fiscal stability and yen valuation.

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