Iran Dangles Nuclear Carrot: Will Trump Bite or Double Down?

Iran just put 60% enriched uranium on the negotiating table. The catch? Donald Trump must lift "all sanctions" in return.

Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran's atomic energy organization, told reporters Monday that Tehran could consider diluting its weapons-grade uranium stockpile—but only if Washington ends its punitive measures. It's the clearest signal yet that Iran might be willing to step back from the nuclear brink, though the conditions remain steep.

The timing isn't coincidental. As Trump's "armada" patrols Middle Eastern waters and threats of military action loom, Iran appears to be testing whether diplomacy can succeed where confrontation has failed.

The Nuclear Chess Game

Uranium dilution involves mixing enriched material with blend stock to reduce its potency. Currently, Iran is the only non-nuclear weapons state enriching uranium to 60%—a threshold that puts it tantalizingly close to the 90% needed for bomb-making capability.

Trump has demanded Iran abandon all enrichment activities, a far harsher position than the 2015 nuclear deal, which allowed enrichment up to 3.67% for civilian purposes. Iran maintains its right to peaceful nuclear technology under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, signed by 190 countries.

The gap between these positions remains vast, but Monday's comments suggest Iran recognizes the pressure it's under.

Oman's Diplomatic Lifeline

Ali Larijani, one of Iran's most senior officials, heads to Oman Tuesday to continue mediated talks between Washington and Tehran. Oman has emerged as the unlikely diplomatic bridge between two nations that severed formal relations decades ago.

Trump called last week's negotiations "very good" while maintaining his trademark threats of "steep consequences" for failure. The mixed messaging reflects the delicate balance both sides are trying to strike—appearing strong domestically while keeping diplomatic channels open.

Trust Deficit and Israeli Pressure

Both sides acknowledge the fundamental challenge: decades of mutual mistrust. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi admitted there's a "wall of mistrust towards the United States," while emphasizing Iran's seriousness about reaching a deal.

President Masoud Pezeshkian called the talks an "important opportunity" for a "fair and balanced solution," but stressed Iran seeks "guarantees for its nuclear rights" and lifting of "unjust sanctions."

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrives in Washington Wednesday, likely to push Trump toward a harder line. Netanyahu wants concessions not just on nuclear issues but on Iran's ballistic missile program and regional alliances—demands that could complicate any emerging deal.

The Coercion Calculation

Andreas Krieg from King's College London notes that US military pressure appears to be working, with both sides "pivoting closer to a deal" than weeks ago. The aircraft carrier deployment and threat of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during last year's conflict with Israel demonstrated Trump's willingness to use force.

Yet the fundamental question remains: Can coercion produce a lasting agreement, or will it simply force Iran into temporary compliance while building resentment for future confrontation?