China's Okinawa Gambit: How Xi Jinping's Historical Claims Challenge the U.S.-Japan Alliance

A quiet comment from China's leader is sending geopolitical shockwaves across East Asia. When President Xi Jinping referenced the 'deep connections' between China and Okinawa (the former Ryukyu Kingdom), he wasn't just reminiscing. This move has elevated a dormant sovereignty issue into a strategic challenge aimed at the heart of the U.S.-Japan alliance. It's widely seen as a calculated response to Japan’s hardening stance on Taiwan and an attempt to unsettle America's foundational strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

A Centuries-Old Sovereignty Game

The remarks Xi made at a Beijing archive on June 4, 2023, are rooted in a tributary relationship between the Ryukyu Kingdom and China's Ming Empire dating back to the late 14th century. While Ryukyu prospered as a privileged trade intermediary, its status shifted dramatically in 1609 after an invasion by Japan's Satsuma Domain, forcing it into a state of dual subordination to both China and Japan. This arrangement ended in the late 19th century when, following the Meiji Restoration, Japan formally annexed the islands. China's consistent position has been that while it never directly administered Ryukyu, the kingdom remained a tributary state within its sphere of influence—the historical basis for Beijing's modern claims.

Beijing's Playbook: Gray-Zone Pressure and Disinformation

Japan's political establishment was immediately alarmed by Xi's 'unprecedented' comments. This move aligns with China's 'Ryukyu Undetermined Status Theory,' which argues the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty didn't validate Japan's claim on Okinawa. Rather than direct confrontation, Beijing is employing gray-zone tactics, such as disinformation campaigns that indirectly support pro-Okinawan independence movements. Analysts at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS) warn of a strategy with 'no boundary between China’s peace and wartime actions.' In its 2025 Defense White Paper, Tokyo identified China as an 'unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge.'

An Alliance Under Strain

Okinawa has been the linchpin of U.S. forward presence in the Pacific since 1945. More than 70 percent of the U.S. military presence in Japan is concentrated on the island, which makes up less than 1 percent of Japan's landmass. This concentration is a persistent source of local friction—a vulnerability China readily exploits. Beijing's gambit is further emboldened by a perceived wavering of Washington's commitment to its allies. Renewed demands for increased burden-sharing from the second Donald Trump administration have raised doubts about the durability of the U.S.-Japan security treaty. Ultimately, China'sOkinawa strategy isn't just a challenge to Japanese sovereignty; it's a long-term play to undermine the very foundation of the security order in Northeast Asia.