Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Forecast: Stock Hits 4-Year High as AI Sales Surge

Intel’s comeback is no longer just a theory. Ahead of Thursday’s quarterly report, the stock jumped 10% on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since early 2022. Over the past 12 months, shares have skyrocketed by 145%, fueled by strategic backing from the U.S. government and AI titan Nvidia.

Intel Q4 2025 Earnings Forecast and the AI Infrastructure Boom

Wall Street is bracing for a pivotal moment as Intel prepares to release its Q4 2025 results after the closing bell. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect revenue to dip 6% year-over-year to $13.4 billion. However, the real story lies in the data center and AI segment, where sales are projected to surge nearly 29% to $4.4 billion.

KeyBanc analysts recently upgraded the stock to 'Buy,' setting a price target of $60. They suggest that Intel is likely sold out of its server CPUs for the year, indicating that pricing power is shifting back to the Santa Clara chipmaker as hyperscalers scramble for hardware to power their AI workloads.

18A Process Node: Challenging TSMC for Foundry Dominance

Much of the long-term optimism is tied to Intel's foundry business. The upcoming 18A manufacturing technology is widely viewed as competitive with TSMC’s 2nm node. This technological leap has attracted massive capital. The U.S. government, now the company's largest shareholder with an $8.9 billion stake, views Intel as a critical pillar of national security.

Furthermore, Nvidia has invested $5 billion in the company, with the two firms agreeing to integrate Intel CPUs with Nvidia AI chips. This partnership could see Intel become the world’s second-largest chip foundry, potentially overtaking Samsung. Under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel has aggressively cut costs and streamlined its structure to prepare for this high-stakes manufacturing race.