黃金叩關50年新高 比特幣面臨關鍵支撐 貨幣供給量揭示資產真相
以美國貨幣供給量為準，黃金正挑戰50年來的歷史高位，而比特幣則面臨關鍵支撐。從兩大資產的背離走勢，剖析當前市場的投資邏輯與未來趨勢。
黃金正挑戰50年來的歷史天險，比特幣卻在關鍵支撐位上步履蹣跚。若以美國的貨幣供給量作為衡量標準，傳統避險資產與數位黃金的命運，此刻正上演一場驚人的分歧。這不僅是價格的漲跌，更是對資產真實價值的一場終極考驗。
黃金挑戰歷史性關卡
相對於美國廣義貨幣供給量M2SL，黃金價格已觸及自2011年以來未見的關鍵阻力區。上一次明確突破此水平，要追溯到1970年代的飆漲時期。今年以來，金價已大幅上漲70%，目前每盎司價格約為$4,500美元。
「數位黃金」比特幣的考驗
形成鮮明對比的是，被譽為「數位黃金」的比特幣（BTC）正陷入困境。今年以來，其價格下跌約10%，目前在$87,272.04美元附近徘徊。從貨幣供給量的角度看，比特幣正在測試一個關鍵支撐位，此價位不僅是今年4月「關稅恐慌」時的低點，也與2024年3月前一輪週期的頂部重合。
為何貨幣供給量是關鍵指標？
貨幣供給量（M2SL）衡量經濟體中流通的現金、存款等貨幣總量。將資產價格與其進行比較，可以剔除貨幣增發帶來的通膨效應，從而更清晰地洞察資產的真實價值變化，此舉可謂撥雲見日。
若黃金能成功突破此歷史阻力，可能意味著一場類似1970年代的大牛市即將展開。另一方面，比特幣能否守住目前的支撐，對其「避險資產」的敘事將是舉足輕重的一戰。
市場瞬息萬變，本文分析不構成任何投資建議。過去的表現不代表未來的回報，投資前請務必審慎評估風險。
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