韓元疲軟推升通膨！國際投行上調南韓2026年通膨預測至2.0%
由於韓元持續疲軟，彭博社數據顯示，全球主要投行已將南韓2026年通膨預測中位數上調至2.0%。此舉反映了輸入性通膨壓力，為南韓央行的政策帶來挑戰。
您的海外投資與旅遊成本恐將增加。由於韓元兌美元持續走弱，全球主要金融機構紛紛上調對南韓2026年的通膨預測，這一變化對亞洲市場的投資佈局響起了警鐘。
預測中位數上調至2.0%
根據彭博社週四彙編的數據，包括主要投資銀行在內的37家機構，對南韓明年的消費者通膨預測中位數已達到2.0%。這個數字比上月底提出的1.9%增加了0.1個百分點。在此期間，有14家機構上修預測，僅有3家下修。這與南韓央行（BOK）上月將其通膨展望從1.9%調高至2.1%的舉措遙相呼應。
匯率貶值：通膨的催化劑
此番預測上調，其背後的核心驅動因素是韓元的持續疲軟。近期韓元匯率一直在年度低點附近徘徊，繼11月跌破1美元兌1,450韓元的心理關卡後，本週更一度逼近1,500大關。貨幣貶值會直接推高進口商品成本，從而對國內物價形成全面壓力。南韓央行也警告，若韓元持續疲軟，消費者通膨可能升至2.5%區間。
然而，值得注意的是，在週三外匯當局強烈的口頭干預後，韓元兌美元創下三年多來的最大單日漲幅，顯示市場短期波動加劇。
對於投資者而言，匯率波動是影響海外資產價值的關鍵變數。韓元持續貶值不僅加劇輸入性通膨風險，也可能引發資本外流的疑慮。投資者應密切關注南韓的貨幣政策走向，並對投資組合進行壓力測試。
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