Forget Greenland — securing Diego Garcia should come first

While President Trump fixates on acquiring Greenland, America faces a more immediate threat to its strategic footprint: losing Diego Garcia, the tiny island that serves as its most important military outpost in the Indian Ocean.

The 'Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier' Under Threat

Diego Garcia may be just 27 square kilometers of coral atoll, but it punches far above its weight in strategic value. Since 1973, this remote island has served as America's primary staging ground for operations across the Middle East and Asia.

From here, B-52 bombers launched strikes during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Today, it hosts nuclear submarines, surveillance aircraft, and serves as a critical refueling stop for military operations spanning from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. It's America's "unsinkable aircraft carrier" in the world's most contested waters.

But this 50-year arrangement now hangs in the balance. In October 2024, Britain agreed to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago — which includes Diego Garcia — to Mauritius, potentially upending decades of American military planning.

Britain's Quiet Retreat

Why would Britain surrender territory it has controlled for half a century? The official narrative centers on "decolonization," but the reality is more complex.

The Chagossians were forcibly removed from their homes in the 1960s to make way for the military base. For decades, they've fought legal battles demanding the right to return. In 2019, the International Court of Justice ruled Britain's control over Chagos "unlawful." Facing mounting international pressure, London finally capitulated.

The concerning part? America was largely sidelined in these negotiations. While Britain promises the base will continue operating "without interruption," sovereignty transfers create new vulnerabilities. Mauritius could renegotiate terms, impose restrictions, or even demand withdrawal.

China's Shadow in the Indian Ocean

The timing couldn't be worse for Washington. China has been steadily expanding its presence in the Indian Ocean through its Belt and Road Initiative, and Mauritius has been a willing partner. Chinese investment has flowed into the island nation, creating potential leverage that Beijing could exploit.

If China gains influence over Mauritius's new sovereignty over Diego Garcia, America's most strategic Indian Ocean asset could be compromised. The implications extend far beyond military operations — it would represent a fundamental shift in the balance of power across maritime Asia.

India is watching nervously. While New Delhi supports Mauritius's sovereignty claims, it has no desire to see Chinese influence replace American presence at such a critical chokepoint. The result is a three-way strategic dance where each player has conflicting interests.

Strategic Priorities in Question

U.S. defense officials claim they're "closely monitoring" the situation, but concrete contingency plans remain unclear. Meanwhile, Trump continues his public campaign for Greenland, creating diplomatic friction with Denmark over territory America doesn't currently need.

The contrast is stark: America is picking fights over hypothetical acquisitions while potentially losing an asset it has relied on for seven decades. Diego Garcia isn't just strategically located — it's already built, staffed, and operational. Greenland would require massive infrastructure investment and offers uncertain strategic benefits.