美國Q3經濟增長4.3%超乎預期，為何投資人笑不出來？聯準會降息時程恐添變數
美國商務部公布第三季GDP年化增長4.3%，超出市場預期，強勁消費為主要動能。然而，此數據可能導致聯準會延後降息。標普500指數在科技股帶動下仍創歷史新高。
強勁的經濟數據，卻可能成為市場的絆腳石。美國商務部公布，第三季國內生產毛額（GDP）年化成長率高達4.3%，遠超經濟學家預期，顯示消費動能依然強韌。然而，這份亮麗的成績單反而讓市場憂心忡忡，擔心聯準會（Fed）在2026年初啟動降息的計畫可能因此延後，為股市前景蒙上一層陰影。
消費力道強勁，但家庭債務同步攀升
因政府關門而延遲近兩個月發布的GDP報告指出，個人消費是經濟增長的主要引擎。第三季消費者支出增長3.5%，較第二季的2.5%顯著加速。這股消費熱潮延續至年底假期，根據Visa的初步報告，假期零售支出增長了4.2%。
但榮景背後，家庭財務壓力浮現。金融服務公司LendingTree表示，今年有37%的美國人因假期購物而背上債務，平均金額從去年的$1,181上升至$1,223。這項數據為消費的可持續性打上問號。
標普500再創新高，美中貿易戰暫時休兵
儘管降息預期降溫，美股依然氣勢如虹，標普500指數再度刷新歷史紀錄。這波漲勢由Alphabet、Nvidia、Broadcom等科技巨頭領軍。此外，川普政府的一項決策也為市場帶來利多消息。美國貿易代表署（USTR）宣布，將對中國半導體進口產品加徵關稅的計畫延後至2027年6月，在此之前18個月的初始關稅率將為零。此舉被視為華府有意緩和與北京之間的貿易緊張關係。
強勁的經濟數據可能引發通膨復燃的擔憂，從而促使聯準會維持緊縮立場或推遲降息。投資人應警惕市場可能因此出現的波動風險。
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