US December Jobs Report 2025 Outlook: Labor Cools as Tariff Rulings Loom

Is the US labor market cooling too fast? Wall Street is bracing for a high-stakes Friday as the government prepares to release the December 2025 jobs report. With the S&P 500 hovering near flat, the upcoming data will serve as a crucial litmus test for the economy's health and the future of interest rates.

US December Jobs Report 2025 Outlook: A Critical Test

According to Dow Jones estimates, nonfarm payrolls are expected to grow by just 73,000 in December, while the unemployment rate is projected to tick down to 4.5%. Investors will be parsing every syllable from Kevin Hassett, a top contender for the next Federal Reserve chair, who's scheduled to speak on CNBC shortly after the data release.

Geopolitics and the Tariff Gavel

The labor market isn't the only headline today. The Supreme Court might finally rule on President Donald Trump's controversial tariff policies. Simultaneously, the administration has de-escalated tensions in South America, with Trump canceling further military strikes on Venezuela. This afternoon, the President will meet with CEOs from Exxon and Shell to discuss energy security and the fallout from Nicolás Maduro's ousting.

Retail Distress and the EV Slowdown

The corporate world is feeling the heat. Saks Global is reportedly struggling to secure $1 billion in financing, pushing the luxury giant toward a possible Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Meanwhile, General Motors (GM) announced a massive $7.1 billion in special charges for Q4 2025, largely due to a cooling electric vehicle market and a reorganization of its Chinese joint ventures.