成長引擎熄火？日經預測：2026年中國GDP增長恐降至4.5%
根據日經調查，受房地產市場長期低迷拖累，中國內需疲軟，預計2026年實際GDP增長將放緩至4.5%。出口雖暫時支撐經濟，但結構性問題依然存在。
中國經濟的黃金時代結束了嗎？根據《日經》最新調查，經濟學家普遍預測，全球第二大經濟體中國在2026年的實際國內生產毛額（GDP）增長率將放緩至4.5%。這項預測的背後，是長期房地產市場低迷所引發的內需疲軟，已成為經濟復甦的巨大絆腳石。
外熱內冷的經濟真相
路透社的報導指出，出口在今年為中國的經濟增長提供了重要支撐，掩蓋了內部的結構性問題。然而，國內需求始終欲振乏力，形成「外熱內冷」的扭曲局面。儘管關稅壁壘的壓力有所緩解，但經濟的核心挑戰源自內部，而非外部環境。
房市困局與內需枷鎖
國內需求不振的病根，直指曠日持久的房地產市場衰退。房地產在中國家庭財富中舉足輕重，房價下跌直接衝擊了消費者的信心與意願。民眾對未來前景感到不安，消費趨於保守，企業投資也步履蹣跚。這種惡性循環，正為中國經濟戴上了沉重的枷鎖。
中國經濟前景的不確定性，可能增加相關股票與資產的投資風險。對於高度依賴中國市場的企業，投資者應進行更審慎的評估。
This content is AI-generated based on source articles. While we strive for accuracy, errors may occur. We recommend verifying with the original source.
Related Articles
The U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in Q3, sending the S&P 500 to a record high. However, the strong data is dampening hopes for an early Fed rate cut, increasing market uncertainty.
A surprising increase in US core capital goods orders and shipments for October 2025 signals robust business investment, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions.
The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in Q3, the fastest in two years, driven by robust consumer spending. However, rising inflation raises questions about sustainability.
The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first reduction in over three years, as it shifts its focus from inflation to supporting economic growth.
The U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in Q3, sending the S&P 500 to a record high. However, the strong data is dampening hopes for an early Fed rate cut, increasing market uncertainty.
A surprising increase in US core capital goods orders and shipments for October 2025 signals robust business investment, potentially influencing the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions.
The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong 4.3% annual rate in Q3, the fastest in two years, driven by robust consumer spending. However, rising inflation raises questions about sustainability.
The Bank of Korea cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first reduction in over three years, as it shifts its focus from inflation to supporting economic growth.