Why the Doomsday Clock Stands at 90 Seconds to Midnight

90 seconds. That's how close humanity stands to annihilation, according to the Doomsday Clock—the closest we've ever been to civilizational collapse since the timepiece was created in 1947.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists maintained this record-breaking proximity to midnight for the second consecutive year, signaling that the existential threats facing humanity haven't just persisted—they've intensified. Even during the height of the Cold War in 1953, the clock only reached 2 minutes to midnight.

A Perfect Storm of Catastrophic Risks

What makes 2026 uniquely dangerous isn't just the presence of traditional threats, but their unprecedented convergence. The scientists point to three primary drivers pushing humanity toward the precipice.

First, nuclear warfare risks have escalated dramatically since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Putin's repeated nuclear threats, the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and the erosion of arms control treaties have created the most dangerous nuclear environment in decades. The INF Treaty is dead, New START hangs by a thread, and both the US and Russia are modernizing their arsenals.

Second, climate change has shifted into overdrive. 2023 shattered temperature records, while 2024 and 2025 continued the trend with cascading climate disasters. The IPCC's latest projections show we're racing toward 3°C of warming—well beyond the Paris Agreement's targets.

Third, artificial intelligence development has outpaced safety measures. The rapid deployment of AI systems in military applications, from autonomous weapons to decision-making algorithms, has created new vectors for catastrophic accidents or intentional misuse.

The Multiplication Effect

What's particularly alarming is how these risks amplify each other. Climate-induced resource scarcity fuels geopolitical tensions that increase nuclear risks. AI systems controlling critical infrastructure become targets for cyberattacks. Extreme weather events can trigger cascading failures in nuclear facilities or military command systems.

Consider the recent tensions in the South China Sea. Climate change has intensified competition for fishing grounds and rare earth minerals needed for renewable energy technology. Meanwhile, AI-powered surveillance and autonomous naval systems have made miscalculation more likely. A single algorithmic error could spark a conflict between nuclear-armed powers.

When the Clock Moved Backward

The Doomsday Clock isn't permanently stuck in one direction. It reached its safest point at 17 minutes to midnight in 1991, following the end of the Cold War and major nuclear disarmament agreements. The clock also moved backward during periods of successful diplomacy, like the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty and the 1987 INF Treaty.

These historical precedents offer hope—but they also highlight what's missing today. The current international system lacks the diplomatic mechanisms that previously pulled humanity back from the brink. The UN Security Council remains paralyzed by great power competition. Arms control negotiations have stalled. Climate cooperation faces mounting political resistance.

The Path Forward

Moving the clock backward requires addressing all three threat categories simultaneously. On nuclear risks, this means resuming arms control negotiations, establishing new guardrails for emerging weapons technologies, and creating crisis communication channels between nuclear powers.

For climate change, the window for gradual transition is closing. The next decade requires unprecedented speed in decarbonization, massive investments in adaptation, and international cooperation on climate migration and resource sharing.

AI governance presents perhaps the steepest challenge. Unlike nuclear weapons, which require rare materials and specialized facilities, AI development is distributed across countless labs and companies. Creating effective oversight while preserving innovation requires new forms of international coordination.