China Meets Goal but Trump's Volatile Policy Clouds US-China Soybean Trade Agreement 2026

They've shaken hands, but the fists are still clenched. While China just fulfilled its initial commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of American soybeans, the deal's future is looking increasingly shaky under Donald Trump's ever-shifting trade dictates.

Implementation of the US-China Soybean Trade Agreement 2026

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the milestone during the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday. After meeting with Chinese Vice President He Lifeng, Bessent told Fox News that Beijing's on track, having completed its immediate purchase goals and looking toward next year's 25 million ton target. USDA data backs this up, showing a surge in orders since early January.

However, the Trump administration's recent rhetoric is throwing a wrench in the gears. Trump recently threatened 25% tariffs on countries buying oil from Iran—a move clearly aimed at China. Furthermore, his threat of 10% tariffs on European allies over Greenland suggests a chaotic trade environment where existing agreements could be scrapped at any moment.

Farmers Pinched by High Costs and Falling Prices

The purchasing boost hasn't been the silver bullet farmers hoped for. Soybean prices, which spiked to over $11.50 per bushel when the deal was first inked, have retreated to $10.56. This price level barely covers production costs, which have been inflated by expensive fertilizer, seeds, and labor. Even with a proposed $12 billion federal aid package, many agricultural experts worry about the long-term viability of these farms.