Nvidia H200 China Export 2026: Trump Eases AI Chip Restrictions

One-half of U.S. sales volume—that's the new magic number for Nvidia. The Trump administration has officially greenlit the export of H200 AI chips to China, reversing a major Biden-era ban. It's a calculated gamble to keep American tech dominant while managing China's rapid AI ascent.

The 50% Rule in Nvidia H200 China Export 2026

According to the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), shipments of Nvidia's second-most-advanced processor can resume this Thursday, January 15, 2026. However, the government has imposed a strict cap: total exports to China cannot exceed 50% of the volume sold within the United States.

This policy shift comes nearly one year after the previous administration blocked the H200 to prevent China from accessing top-tier American AI hardware. The current administration isn't just opening the gates; they're trying to strike a balance between market share for U.S. firms and national security concerns.

Immediate Demand and Strategic Dependence

Analysts suggest that Chinese tech giants won't hesitate to place orders. Charles Chang, a professor at Fudan University, noted that because China is currently behind in high-end silicon development, the market's hunger for these chips is enormous. They're plug-and-play for many existing systems already running on Nvidia software.